Home‹Situations‹Blind Steal
Situation

💰 Blind Steal

A blind steal is an open raise from late position (BTN, CO, SB) aimed at winning the blinds without a contest. It's one of the most fundamental and high-frequency profit sources in poker — mastering it separates winning players from break-even ones.

📊 Steal EV Basics

Break-Even Fold Equity

A 2.5BB open from BTN needs SB+BB to fold ~55% of the time to be immediately profitable. Against nits who fold 70%+, even the weakest hands become EV+ steals. Understanding the math makes every decision automatic.

PositionStandard Rangevs Nit Blindsvs Calling Station BB
BTN~50%~60-65%Value-heavy ~35-40%
CO~28-32%~35-40%~25%
SB vs BB~40-45%—Value-heavy ~30%

📐 Steal Sizing

SituationRecommended SizeNotes
BTN vs nit blinds2–2.2BBMin-raise pressure is sufficient
BTN standard2.5BBMost common sizing
SB vs BB2.5–3BBOOP premium — size up slightly
vs aggressive 3-bettors2–2.2BBSmaller size reduces 3-bet risk
Live games3–4BBCallers are wider; size up

⚔ïļ Steal Strategy by Opponent

  • Open very wide: 60%+ from BTN — nits fold 70-80% of the time
  • Min-raise size works: Nits fold to 2BB just as often as to 3BB
  • Continuation bet always: Nits miss and fold the flop frequently
  • Respect their 3-bets: When a nit 3-bets, their range is very strong — tighten up or fold
  • Value-heavy range: Fish call too wide — reduce bluff frequency
  • Size up slightly: Larger opens extract more value from wide callers
  • Postflop plan matters: Fish call preflop but fold postflop with air — c-bet reliably
  • Avoid marginal bluffs: Fish don't fold enough to make thin bluffs profitable
  • Standard steal frequency: ~50% BTN, ~30% CO
  • Mix value and bluffs: TAGs defend at a reasonable rate — balance your range
  • Float and 3-bet bluff: TAGs c-bet frequently — float with position and attack their checks
  • Track their 3-bet%: TAGs who 3-bet 8%+ deserve more respect; tighten steal range
  • Tighten steal range: Against heavy 3-bettors, open only hands you're comfortable 4-betting or calling
  • Min-raise to reduce risk: Smaller opens lose less when folded to 3-bets
  • 4-bet bluff back: Against frequent 3-bettors, add 4-bet bluffs (A5s, KQs) to your range
  • Position is crucial: If they 3-bet from out of position frequently, call more and exploit postflop

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defending Your Blinds vs Steals

BB Defense Principles
  • Defend wide from BB: You already have 1BB invested — pot odds justify wide defense (~35-40% vs BTN open)
  • 3-bet or call: Mix 3-bets (value + bluffs) and calls based on hand strength and position
  • From SB: Defense is harder (you'll be OOP postflop) — tighten defense, 3-bet more
  • Check-raise more from BB: As preflop caller OOP, check-raise the flop to reclaim initiative